# Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 06:01:19 GMT. 24h change +0.4pp, 24h volume $127.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-90-114
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-90-114
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T06:01:19.696Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $127.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $164.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $12.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x849c…4009` — 15,096.894 shares
- `0xacbc…7cc3` — 11,737.66 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 10,000 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 8,787.895 shares
- `0xf272…c118` — 5,161.92 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 59,915.498 shares
- `0xdf0a…08e8` — 13,368.99 shares
- `0x5359…6b35` — 3,971 shares
- `0xaac2…e8ce` — 3,143.845 shares
- `0xe4c6…24cf` — 2,766.95 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 86 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T17:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T06:00:07.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 49¢ |
| Net change | -10.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-90-114` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T06:01:19.696Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-90-114.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*