# Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 8% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 01:49:48 GMT. 24h change +3.9pp, 24h volume $92.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-0-39
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-0-39
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T01:49:48.700Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **8¢** (8%) |
| Δ 1h | -3.3pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $92.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $115.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $14.1K |
| Spread | 0.70pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 23 12:00 PM ET to May 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 14h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc21e…e6d3` — 32,709.597 shares
- `0xe83c…04ce` — 5,010.577 shares
- `0x813e…5d51` — 5,000.003 shares
- `0x77c8…bc8c` — 4,999.959 shares
- `0xcb75…33f6` — 4,787.951 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 46,496.714 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 15,575.47 shares
- `0xaac2…e8ce` — 6,584.748 shares
- `0x7b73…c441` — 4,035.79 shares
- `0x7c6c…1f86` — 2,943.97 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T17:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T15:01:06.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 31¢ |
| Net change | -26.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-0-39` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? — 8% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T01:49:48.700Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-0-39.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*