# Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 18:33:56 GMT. 24h change +41.4pp, 24h volume $270.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-40-64
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-40-64
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T18:33:56.753Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +41.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $270.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $366.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $40.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 23 12:00 PM ET to May 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 41.4pp in 24h with 6.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x53bd…5d30` — 28,510.54 shares
- `0x8eab…a56d` — 12,242.61 shares
- `0x347c…6b1f` — 12,205.585 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 8,445.87 shares
- `0xddd8…e6f7` — 4,972.246 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 74,719.15 shares
- `0x2778…8547` — 25,970.384 shares
- `0x7c6c…1f86` — 7,114.34 shares
- `0x6a97…4800` — 4,788.728 shares
- `0xfd5c…6d2a` — 4,369.28 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 97 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T17:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T16:41:04.000Z |
| Range | 18¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +64.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-40-64` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T18:33:56.753Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-23-may-25-40-64.
```

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