# Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 26% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 05:46:24 GMT. 24h change +5.4pp, 24h volume $157.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-4-may-6-0-39
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-4-may-6-0-39
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T05:46:24.734Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **26¢** (26%) |
| Δ 1h | -8.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $157.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $220.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $13.8K |
| Spread | 1.80pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x77c8…bc8c` — 4,586.225 shares
- `0x35f3…cfd0` — 3,600 shares
- `0x4355…c5d4` — 3,301.12 shares
- `0x8288…5519` — 3,000 shares
- `0xeff9…05fd` — 3,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 29,536.891 shares
- `0x7c6c…1f86` — 21,978.191 shares
- `0x8007…a8f4` — 8,015.057 shares
- `0x738d…cc21` — 2,299.971 shares
- `0xf993…cd9d` — 1,500 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 86 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T17:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T05:45:04.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 38¢ |
| Net change | +21.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-4-may-6-0-39` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? — 26% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T05:46:24.734Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-4-may-6-0-39.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*