# Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 08:00:43 GMT. 24h change -8.0pp, 24h volume $224.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-140-159
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-140-159
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T08:00:43.922Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.6pp |
| Δ 24h | -8.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -12.5pp |
| 24h volume | $224.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $526.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $32.9K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 5 12:00 PM ET to May 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 88%): Probability moved down 8.0pp in 24h with 6.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 8h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xce1e…851f` — 50,000 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 16,921.463 shares
- `0x849c…4009` — 14,303.957 shares
- `0x813e…5d51` — 11,201.096 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 265,269.066 shares
- `0xdf0a…08e8` — 23,743.417 shares
- `0x70c6…b544` — 5,419.11 shares
- `0x6d3f…a942` — 4,093.382 shares
- `0xeec3…c2a0` — 3,922.655 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T09:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T08:00:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 42¢ |
| Net change | -14.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-140-159` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T08:00:43.922Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-140-159.
```

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