# Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 04:32:11 GMT. 24h change -0.2pp, 24h volume $195.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-220-239
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-220-239
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T04:32:11.549Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 1w | -10.9pp |
| 24h volume | $195.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $317.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $45.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 5 12:00 PM ET to May 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 35h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x02b4…7092` — 29,999.946 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 19,127.32 shares
- `0xa59c…bb62` — 13,762.595 shares
- `0x4067…6ffa` — 7,552 shares
- `0x146d…17c7` — 6,697.772 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 231,253.293 shares
- `0xc4d5…87cf` — 772.132 shares
- `0x69c9…3b29` — 507.694 shares
- `0xa606…8273` — 466.68 shares
- `0x9765…436b` — 208.333 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T05:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T04:30:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 12¢ |
| Net change | -10.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-220-239` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T04:32:11.549Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-220-239.
```

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