# Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 42% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 04:50:33 GMT. 24h change +15.0pp, 24h volume $148.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-7-may-9-0-39
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-7-may-9-0-39
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T04:50:33.500Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **42¢** (42%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +15.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $148.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $232.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $15.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 11h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0dcb…a7b4` — 10,327.433 shares
- `0x77c8…bc8c` — 4,383.79 shares
- `0x35f3…cfd0` — 3,700 shares
- `0x8288…5519` — 3,000 shares
- `0xc4d5…87cf` — 2,999.995 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 35,958.904 shares
- `0x9c27…2132` — 4,817.341 shares
- `0x9a3a…4580` — 4,053.995 shares
- `0x7141…8345` — 3,646.909 shares
- `0x7c6c…1f86` — 3,613.956 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 108 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T18:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T04:49:04.000Z |
| Range | 10¢ → 45¢ |
| Net change | +31.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-7-may-9-0-39` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? — 42% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T04:50:33.500Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-7-may-9-0-39.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*