# Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 57% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 15:23:44 GMT. 24h change +17.9pp, 24h volume $267.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-8-may-15-100-119
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-8-may-15-100-119
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T15:23:44.889Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **57¢** (57%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +17.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +54.0pp |
| 24h volume | $267.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $602.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $20.4K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 25h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x7c6c…1f86` — 27,696.914 shares
- `0xa638…1d87` — 9,451.834 shares
- `0x8eab…a56d` — 8,000 shares
- `0x878a…a429` — 6,800.008 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 263,267.213 shares
- `0x2061…8ec9` — 11,616.281 shares
- `0x6d3f…a942` — 6,109.346 shares
- `0xe23d…3c72` — 4,545.718 shares
- `0x5364…c64d` — 2,753.917 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T16:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T15:23:05.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 60¢ |
| Net change | +53.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-8-may-15-100-119` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? — 57% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T15:23:44.889Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-8-may-15-100-119.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*