# Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 18:47:43 GMT. 24h change +40.5pp, 24h volume $260.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-may-11-0-39
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-may-11-0-39
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T18:47:43.655Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +40.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $260.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $382.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $283.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x48c5…89f3` — 25,708.1 shares
- `0x6964…ef53` — 12,574.258 shares
- `0xdf0a…08e8` — 10,104.361 shares
- `0x913f…c676` — 9,645.55 shares
- `0x4699…e03c` — 8,627 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 66,897.705 shares
- `0xa638…1d87` — 21,667.79 shares
- `0x9057…c12c` — 15,999.951 shares
- `0x4355…c5d4` — 15,499.99 shares
- `0x017b…1ef4` — 9,998.965 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 99 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T18:47:04.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +81.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-may-11-0-39` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T18:47:43.655Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-9-may-11-0-39.
```

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