# Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 27% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 20:05:30 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $360.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/epl-ast-liv-2026-05-17-draw
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/epl-ast-liv-2026-05-17-draw
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T20:05:30.726Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **27¢** (27%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +5.0pp |
| 24h volume | $360.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $369.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $337.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** https://www.premierleague.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 17, 2026
> If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes".
> This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 63%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -2.0pp vs. 24h +1.0pp.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 39h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcd65…ee96` — 131,180.352 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 36,533.74 shares
- `0x6d11…c449` — 19,868.23 shares
- `0xc788…8545` — 10,888.889 shares
- `0x180a…54a6` — 10,389.286 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x7ea5…de7b` — 56,847.729 shares
- `0x5c3a…020b` — 22,212.129 shares
- `0x0346…52a5` — 22,128.257 shares
- `0x9602…4d02` — 16,997.288 shares
- `0x160b…4296` — 10,997 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T21:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T20:04:08.000Z |
| Range | 22¢ → 28¢ |
| Net change | +4.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=epl-ast-liv-2026-05-17-draw` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? — 27% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T20:05:30.726Z from https://orrery.me/markets/epl-ast-liv-2026-05-17-draw.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*