# Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 5% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 19:11:08 GMT. 24h change -39.0pp, 24h volume $1.7M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/epl-ast-tot-2026-05-03-ast
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/epl-ast-tot-2026-05-03-ast
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T19:11:08.619Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **5¢** (5%) |
| Δ 1h | -35.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -39.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -39.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.7M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $56.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.premierleague.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 3, 2026
> If Aston Villa FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
> This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 39.0pp in 24h with 29.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 480,169.063 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 205,280.54 shares
- `0x37e4…c991` — 125,000 shares
- `0x9158…fa7b` — 90,000 shares
- `0xc660…bd28` — 90,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0eb5…c494` — 1,200,113.206 shares
- `0xd202…8973` — 51,246.604 shares
- `0x1ef5…dc05` — 22,196.517 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 20,829.244 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 19,800 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T20:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T19:10:10.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 47¢ |
| Net change | -40.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=epl-ast-tot-2026-05-03-ast` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? — 5% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T19:11:08.619Z from https://orrery.me/markets/epl-ast-tot-2026-05-03-ast.
```

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