# Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 22:33:28 GMT. 24h change +61.5pp, 24h volume $300.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/epl-mac-cry-2026-03-21-spread-home-2pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/epl-mac-cry-2026-03-21-spread-home-2pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Mar 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T22:33:28.655Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +61.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +69.5pp |
| 24h volume | $300.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $300.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $238.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Mar 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.premierleague.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for March 21 at 11:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 3 or more goals.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Crystal Palace FC".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3555…ba40` — 60,079.5 shares
- `0xa16a…33a1` — 24,677.25 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 15,602.408 shares
- `0x7c58…a5a1` — 9,999.994 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 9,595.372 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5af4…a7df` — 54,999.937 shares
- `0xd9c4…6f95` — 24,999.859 shares
- `0xfd29…77ae` — 9,019.3 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 8,051.254 shares
- `0x7236…ea53` — 6,400 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 167 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T21:00:12.000Z |
| Range | 28¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +70.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=epl-mac-cry-2026-03-21-spread-home-2pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T22:33:28.655Z from https://orrery.me/markets/epl-mac-cry-2026-03-21-spread-home-2pt5.
```

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