# Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 00:45:37 GMT. 24h change +68.8pp, 24h volume $234.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/f1-canadian-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-24
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/f1-canadian-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-24
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T00:45:37.690Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +68.8pp |
| Δ 1w | +67.3pp |
| 24h volume | $234.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $258.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $34.9K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix, scheduled for May 24, 2026.
> 
> If the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
> 
> This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.
> 
> Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
> 
> The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 68.8pp in 24h with 6.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x255a…23c0` — 27,444.823 shares
- `0xa2c9…2c23` — 14,817.12 shares
- `0x198f…c419` — 13,483.176 shares
- `0xdee3…6fe5` — 8,086.868 shares
- `0x814d…b842` — 8,024.906 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 27,824.987 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 22,618.154 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 21,340.366 shares
- `0x4337…8882` — 10,360.183 shares
- `0x64ce…944b` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T23:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T22:33:04.000Z |
| Range | 31¢ → 46¢ |
| Net change | +8.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=f1-canadian-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-24` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T00:45:37.690Z from https://orrery.me/markets/f1-canadian-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-24.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*