# Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 20:26:29 GMT. 24h change +73.6pp, 24h volume $269.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/f1-miami-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/f1-miami-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T20:26:29.472Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +73.6pp |
| Δ 1w | +66.0pp |
| 24h volume | $269.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $287.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $17.1K |
| Spread | 0.50pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 3, 2026.
> 
> If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 10, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
> 
> This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.
> 
> Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
> 
> The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd218…b5c9` — 23,537.567 shares
- `0xfaa5…7cc9` — 23,000.787 shares
- `0x27b0…fc67` — 15,199.987 shares
- `0xecb1…5da3` — 13,616.618 shares
- `0x9531…9099` — 5,577.29 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x15a6…bf5d` — 30,969.205 shares
- `0x59e8…c5e8` — 22,985.281 shares
- `0xa5ef…2966` — 17,385.316 shares
- `0x18c4…f6dc` — 12,008.406 shares
- `0xe72b…b0a0` — 9,597.717 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T21:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T20:26:06.000Z |
| Range | 18¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +66.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=f1-miami-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T20:26:29.472Z from https://orrery.me/markets/f1-miami-grand-prix-winner-antonelli-2026-05-03.
```

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