# Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-03?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 38% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 16:22:58 GMT. 24h change -3.0pp, 24h volume $737.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/fl1-str-tou-2026-05-03-tou
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/fl1-str-tou-2026-05-03-tou
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T16:22:58.200Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **38¢** (38%) |
| Δ 1h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +2.0pp |
| 24h volume | $737.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $738.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $47.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.ligue1.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 3, 2026
> If Toulouse FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
> This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 71%): Probability moved down 3.0pp in 24h with 15.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3m ago | `Happy-Go-Lucky-Min` | BUY | NO | $9.45 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x91ee…c5b8` — 558,047.44 shares
- `0xd684…f320` — 16,215.108 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 6,031.64 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 5,109.17 shares
- `0x4a8d…31ea` — 2,162.653 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 229,460.644 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 104,951.776 shares
- `0x7ea5…de7b` — 33,435.175 shares
- `0x709e…66f5` — 27,436.993 shares
- `0x412f…30fa` — 23,400 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T17:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T16:22:04.000Z |
| Range | 33¢ → 41¢ |
| Net change | +2.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=fl1-str-tou-2026-05-03-tou` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-03? — 38% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T16:22:58.200Z from https://orrery.me/markets/fl1-str-tou-2026-05-03-tou.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*