# Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 10:46:24 GMT. 24h change -0.8pp, 24h volume $283.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/greece-x-turkey-military-engagement-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/greece-x-turkey-military-engagement-by-june-30
**Category:** Culture
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T10:46:24.902Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.8pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.3pp |
| 24h volume | $283.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $782.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $13.7K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 
> 
> Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5c8f…05a2` — 12,959.239 shares
- `0xd980…5be0` — 9,999.978 shares
- `0xee67…67a6` — 1,167.039 shares
- `0x4e2a…b339` — 1,136.323 shares
- `0x03be…f6d9` — 1,100 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3022…59c1` — 9,557 shares
- `0x3c8a…b45a` — 8,424.153 shares
- `0x333e…369b` — 3,235.102 shares
- `0x8b88…5f5e` — 2,295.269 shares
- `0xdd5c…0c2a` — 1,487.84 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T11:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T10:00:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 4¢ |
| Net change | -1.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=greece-x-turkey-military-engagement-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T10:46:24.902Z from https://orrery.me/markets/greece-x-turkey-military-engagement-by-june-30.
```

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