# Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 03:16:45 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $195.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026
**Category:** Science
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T03:16:45.050Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.5pp |
| 24h volume | $195.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $10.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $2.0M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc8ab…6418` — 245,860.192 shares
- `0xa6b2…c3f8` — 169,166.816 shares
- `0xa3a3…c2f9` — 149,999.98 shares
- `0xdce0…1d75` — 130,968.127 shares
- `0x0baa…fe13` — 127,728.059 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 305,173.033 shares
- `0xdf17…97d1` — 237,901.885 shares
- `0xfffa…864b` — 204,255.107 shares
- `0xdef6…f69a` — 175,730.852 shares
- `0xc6dd…4b9f` — 151,412.457 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T04:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T03:15:05.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 9¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T03:16:45.050Z from https://orrery.me/markets/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*