# Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 22:02:26 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $125.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-may-2-2026-26c
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-may-2-2026-26c
**Category:** Weather
**Resolves by:** May 2, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T22:02:26.279Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $125.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $136.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $19.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 2, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
> 
> This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
> 
> The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
> 
> Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x85b9…b428` — 32,603.693 shares
- `0x1041…f452` — 5,813.081 shares
- `0x94da…25b5` — 3,000 shares
- `0xb06a…52f5` — 1,030.292 shares
- `0x6c20…472d` — 1,003.451 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 22,820.855 shares
- `0x1e3f…675c` — 6,626.558 shares
- `0x880d…adb6` — 5,823.778 shares
- `0x9296…ffbc` — 3,838.57 shares
- `0xb908…d807` — 3,691.692 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 66 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T05:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T22:02:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 55¢ |
| Net change | -21.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-may-2-2026-26c` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T22:02:26.279Z from https://orrery.me/markets/highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-may-2-2026-26c.
```

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