# Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on May 25?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 21:54:28 GMT. 24h change -0.2pp, 24h volume $298.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/highest-temperature-in-mexico-city-on-may-25-2026-18c
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-mexico-city-on-may-25-2026-18c
**Category:** Weather
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T21:54:28.289Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $298.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $298.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $316.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
> 
> To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
> 
> This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
> 
> The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
> 
> Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc135…a01a` — 297,300 shares
- `0x0f37…1410` — 71,500 shares
- `0xdafd…2ad4` — 1,500 shares
- `0xc6fd…53df` — 1,000 shares
- `0x3690…e16f` — 200 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 89,099.26 shares
- `0xd25b…9f3d` — 10,010.01 shares
- `0xa3be…39a5` — 10,000 shares
- `0xdf71…b1d2` — 5,004.94 shares
- `0x1cff…6cff` — 3,003 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 66 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T21:54:03.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | -0.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=highest-temperature-in-mexico-city-on-may-25-2026-18c` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on May 25? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T21:54:28.289Z from https://orrery.me/markets/highest-temperature-in-mexico-city-on-may-25-2026-18c.
```

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