#  Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 28% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 23:09:03 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $456.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T23:09:03.020Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **28¢** (28%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +1.0pp |
| 24h volume | $456.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $32.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
> 
> Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
> 
> An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
> 
> An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. 
> 
> Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6139…6b7a` — 44,867.909 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 33,746.188 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 16,350.2 shares
- `0x4f23…90db` — 12,382.65 shares
- `0x3c59…1766` — 11,856.385 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5739…5f1a` — 94,577.034 shares
- `0xb8b4…1f6e` — 30,708.861 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 20,786.004 shares
- `0xdbad…9c95` — 12,006.793 shares
- `0x2802…6f1e` — 7,829.787 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T00:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T23:07:04.000Z |
| Range | 25¢ → 41¢ |
| Net change | +1.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — 28% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T23:09:03.020Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30.
```

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