# Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 07:55:54 GMT. 24h change +2.2pp, 24h volume $227.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T07:55:54.428Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +1.7pp |
| 24h volume | $227.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $949.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $77.8K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
> 
> Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
> 
> An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
> 
> An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. 
> 
> Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 62,751.513 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 31,994.698 shares
- `0xd426…334a` — 17,655.145 shares
- `0x6139…6b7a` — 14,999.934 shares
- `0xcb01…ead3` — 9,128.016 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x136a…88ee` — 52,110.559 shares
- `0x5739…5f1a` — 47,183.984 shares
- `0xe738…df65` — 33,265.663 shares
- `0xb8b4…1f6e` — 23,585.619 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 20,620.61 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-17T08:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T07:55:05.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 17¢ |
| Net change | +2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T07:55:54.428Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945.
```

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