# Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 21% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 13:09:43 GMT. 24h change +7.0pp, 24h volume $180.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T13:09:43.099Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **21¢** (21%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +7.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.0pp |
| 24h volume | $180.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $70.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
> 
> An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
> 
> To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
> 
> Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
> 
> An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
> 
> Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **divergence** (confidence 50%): Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.0pp vs. 24h +7.0pp.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa022…77f8` — 68,753.634 shares
- `0x68c2…1711` — 50,000 shares
- `0x398d…c7c3` — 31,754.66 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 27,330.54 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 18,968.547 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5739…5f1a` — 65,007.963 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 45,549.978 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 37,190.852 shares
- `0x0c0e…434e` — 32,890.75 shares
- `0xb8b4…1f6e` — 26,812.142 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T14:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T13:09:06.000Z |
| Range | 11¢ → 24¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? — 21% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T13:09:43.099Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by-june-30-2026.
```

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