# Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 14% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:48:25 GMT. 24h change +5.0pp, 24h volume $1.1M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-21
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:48:25.868Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **14¢** (14%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +1.5pp |
| 24h volume | $1.1M |
| Lifetime volume | $2.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $113.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). 
> 
> Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
> 
> Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
> 
> Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcf60…47ce` — 223,420.438 shares
- `0x3915…faff` — 83,856.474 shares
- `0x0042…321e` — 68,376.576 shares
- `0x3811…8f61` — 68,169.053 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 67,998.641 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc0ff…9953` — 111,943.592 shares
- `0x2974…9c23` — 82,510.938 shares
- `0x96f9…1d08` — 52,883.48 shares
- `0x09a5…caaa` — 43,298.98 shares
- `0x5011…220e` — 38,235.129 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T09:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T08:02:04.000Z |
| Range | 8¢ → 26¢ |
| Net change | +1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Iran closes its airspace by May 21? — 14% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:48:25.868Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-21.
```

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