# Iran closes its airspace by May 6?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 22:52:00 GMT. 24h change -4.0pp, 24h volume $166.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-6
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-6
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T22:52:00.220Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $166.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $184.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $151.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). 
> 
> Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). 
> 
> Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
> 
> Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9178…a2b2` — 10,470.97 shares
- `0xeeb1…bf68` — 8,007.86 shares
- `0x4c41…d286` — 7,222.222 shares
- `0x4354…89a9` — 5,251.945 shares
- `0x8df9…468c` — 5,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfaf9…f4c4` — 24,713.34 shares
- `0xb20a…d09d` — 23,147.054 shares
- `0xd34f…1c95` — 6,357.71 shares
- `0xcb59…0a22` — 3,026.964 shares
- `0x5011…220e` — 2,898.458 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 29 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T19:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T22:50:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 3¢ |
| Net change | -3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-6` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Iran closes its airspace by May 6? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T22:52:00.220Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-6.
```

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