# Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 14% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 21:22:22 GMT. 24h change -16.5pp, 24h volume $1.8M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8-754-861
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8-754-861
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T21:22:22.855Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **14¢** (14%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -16.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.8M |
| Lifetime volume | $4.8M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $448.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). 
> 
> Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
> 
> Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
> 
> Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 16.5pp in 24h with 4.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf396…ed0d` — 169,315.467 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 100,754.369 shares
- `0xf1bf…11d7` — 84,139.363 shares
- `0x53e5…6177` — 50,499.916 shares
- `0xa43a…94b2` — 50,211.596 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xeed5…1a33` — 85,731.68 shares
- `0x614d…1546` — 40,000.009 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 38,622.804 shares
- `0xbf93…2fd7` — 33,513.798 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 33,120.055 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 99 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T19:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T21:14:04.000Z |
| Range | 12¢ → 39¢ |
| Net change | -9.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8-754-861` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Iran closes its airspace by May 8? — 14% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T21:22:22.855Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8-754-861.
```

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