# Iran coup attempt by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 9% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 14:33:29 GMT. 24h change +1.5pp, 24h volume $337.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T14:33:29.354Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **9¢** (9%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -2.5pp |
| 24h volume | $337.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $31.9K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
> 
> Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xae7c…487e` — 41,068.65 shares
- `0x9078…26af` — 16,471.113 shares
- `0xcf6a…f9d0` — 12,437.094 shares
- `0xb128…cf58` — 11,558.479 shares
- `0x4b76…94fd` — 10,238.167 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 29,349.282 shares
- `0x8e5c…a68a` — 24,935.549 shares
- `0x614d…1546` — 24,773.291 shares
- `0xe52c…6924` — 11,214.55 shares
- `0x5cd5…ac33` — 10,775.989 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T15:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T14:31:06.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 13¢ |
| Net change | -2.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Iran coup attempt by June 30? — 9% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T14:33:29.354Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*