# Iran leadership change by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 11% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 08:24:06 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $143.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/iran-leadership-change-by-may-31-593-194-829
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by-may-31-593-194-829
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T08:24:06.977Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **11¢** (11%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -3.0pp |
| 24h volume | $143.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $108.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
> 
> An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xae7c…487e` — 44,912.073 shares
- `0x71e5…d10b` — 37,000 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 33,528.692 shares
- `0xafc0…5087` — 33,480.807 shares
- `0x7a3c…977c` — 29,002.122 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x69aa…8847` — 41,106.773 shares
- `0xe270…0fc7` — 20,683.655 shares
- `0xb100…6461` — 20,374.981 shares
- `0x5cd5…ac33` — 19,433.201 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 19,142.253 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T09:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T08:23:07.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 14¢ |
| Net change | -3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=iran-leadership-change-by-may-31-593-194-829` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Iran leadership change by May 31? — 11% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T08:24:06.977Z from https://orrery.me/markets/iran-leadership-change-by-may-31-593-194-829.
```

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