# Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 5% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 04:37:10 GMT. 24h change +0.5pp, 24h volume $208.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T04:37:10.916Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **5¢** (5%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.2pp |
| 24h volume | $208.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $632.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $22.4K |
| Spread | 0.60pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd31d…bd0c` — 4,418 shares
- `0xf31a…8fbc` — 2,160.78 shares
- `0x8a98…1b92` — 1,993.91 shares
- `0x9766…e931` — 1,357.863 shares
- `0x163f…19ed` — 1,073 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9507…7b04` — 2,399 shares
- `0x07f3…4ede` — 1,120 shares
- `0x73aa…dd36` — 1,077 shares
- `0xfc9d…e6db` — 1,032 shares
- `0x07bf…fb79` — 997 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T05:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T04:36:05.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 7¢ |
| Net change | +0.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? — 5% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T04:37:10.916Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by-june-30-2026.
```

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