# Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 23% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 20:52:44 GMT. 24h change +4.0pp, 24h volume $69.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T20:52:44.414Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **23¢** (23%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -6.5pp |
| 24h volume | $69.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $866.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $47.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 
> 
> A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
> 
> Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 44,188.374 shares
- `0x7a3c…977c` — 14,046.36 shares
- `0xf9c1…39e2` — 12,735.89 shares
- `0x83d6…984c` — 11,828.887 shares
- `0xe738…df65` — 8,419.927 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x88c4…129a` — 41,884.571 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 30,151.595 shares
- `0xecaa…77a9` — 24,605.373 shares
- `0x2779…239a` — 19,791.252 shares
- `0x095d…52cf` — 13,180.638 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T21:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T20:51:07.000Z |
| Range | 10¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | -18.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel closes its airspace by May 31? — 23% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T20:52:44.414Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31.
```

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