# Israel closes its airspace by May 8?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 07:30:30 GMT. 24h change -1.5pp, 24h volume $188.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T07:30:30.252Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $188.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $492.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $95.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 
> 
> A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
> 
> Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
> 
> Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcb01…ead3` — 32,626.727 shares
- `0xb9d2…fb68` — 18,925.659 shares
- `0x97cb…c910` — 18,918.173 shares
- `0x5715…1616` — 17,840.313 shares
- `0xee67…67a6` — 13,970.708 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8c57…f939` — 6,732.691 shares
- `0x836f…906e` — 5,770 shares
- `0x69ea…15cd` — 3,544.966 shares
- `0xffb0…fa37` — 1,831.05 shares
- `0xda47…941c` — 1,618.745 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 103 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T01:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T06:01:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 24¢ |
| Net change | -20.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel closes its airspace by May 8? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T07:30:30.252Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8.
```

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