# Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 03:57:35 GMT. 24h change +0.3pp, 24h volume $220.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-may-31-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-may-31-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T03:57:35.842Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.3pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.3pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.9pp |
| 24h volume | $220.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $36.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
> 
> The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfd66…fb6d` — 18,999.859 shares
- `0xe94b…5abe` — 4,214.56 shares
- `0x1dae…783d` — 2,011 shares
- `0x3d29…a996` — 1,999.999 shares
- `0x70e2…5c64` — 1,818.182 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 40,043.136 shares
- `0x614d…1546` — 4,009.348 shares
- `0x744a…923b` — 3,506.73 shares
- `0x0eee…5b68` — 2,575.95 shares
- `0x4b2d…f0d4` — 1,999.999 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T04:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T03:57:16.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 4¢ |
| Net change | -1.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-may-31-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T03:57:35.842Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-may-31-2026.
```

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