# Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 13% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 23:16:30 GMT. 24h change +10.8pp, 24h volume $278.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T23:16:30.317Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **13¢** (13%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +10.8pp |
| Δ 1w | +10.9pp |
| 24h volume | $278.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $475.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $43.1K |
| Spread | 0.60pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
> 
> A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
> 
> - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
> 
> - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
> 
> The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4478…02a4` — 55,000.26 shares
- `0x420e…e3c9` — 45,334.81 shares
- `0xd426…334a` — 33,572.795 shares
- `0xa204…bf99` — 33,021.84 shares
- `0x0482…6b0a` — 18,018.92 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9351…9e4d` — 207,782.657 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 31,123.24 shares
- `0xa7cf…ba10` — 6,003.33 shares
- `0x6e2e…79bf` — 2,899.076 shares
- `0x5822…8774` — 1,596.071 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-17T00:00:27.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T23:16:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 15¢ |
| Net change | +13.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — 13% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T23:16:30.317Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026.
```

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