# Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 20% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 06:48:13 GMT. 24h change +3.9pp, 24h volume $203.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T06:48:13.661Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **20¢** (20%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +5.7pp |
| 24h volume | $203.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $757.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $79.7K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
> 
> A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
> 
> - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
> 
> - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
> 
> The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 73%): Probability moved up 3.9pp in 24h with 2.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 186,827.211 shares
- `0xe7cb…d447` — 69,104.098 shares
- `0x079f…28df` — 20,712.213 shares
- `0xce1d…1b9b` — 19,999.961 shares
- `0xfc2f…10c7` — 9,300 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc15b…38af` — 170,215.064 shares
- `0x6deb…eb68` — 20,212.981 shares
- `0x000d…758e` — 19,515.5 shares
- `0x8e5c…a68a` — 18,784.492 shares
- `0xe36f…cd91` — 17,016.9 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-18T17:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T16:18:04.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 22¢ |
| Net change | +6.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — 20% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T06:48:13.661Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*