# Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 5% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 07:44:32 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $169.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T07:44:32.558Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **5¢** (5%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.3pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $169.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $191.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $45.0K |
| Spread | 0.80pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
> 
> A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
> 
> - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
> 
> - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
> 
> The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd426…334a` — 78,119.43 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 52,870.59 shares
- `0xc040…beac` — 21,204.32 shares
- `0x7d58…cfcc` — 5,604.915 shares
- `0x60a9…5a71` — 5,212.835 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3355…a126` — 148,943.232 shares
- `0x3022…59c1` — 5,000 shares
- `0x6139…6b7a` — 3,999.985 shares
- `0x73d2…f9b7` — 3,000 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 2,054.253 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T21:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T07:44:07.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -45.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — 5% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T07:44:32.558Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*