# Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 8% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 15:20:09 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $517.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-june-30
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jan 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T15:20:09.134Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **8¢** (8%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -5.5pp |
| 24h volume | $517.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $705.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $12.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jan 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    
> 
> Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.
> 
> Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x88e2…7489` — 535.16 shares
- `0x74b8…0c87` — 513 shares
- `0x0e77…3273` — 356 shares
- `0x1787…44a9` — 356 shares
- `0x43c9…47c1` — 356 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xef37…f2bc` — 2,244 shares
- `0x1fa8…2bcd` — 1,186 shares
- `0xc781…59d7` — 500 shares
- `0xbb2b…a065` — 286 shares
- `0xa457…1a93` — 277 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T16:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T15:18:04.000Z |
| Range | 8¢ → 14¢ |
| Net change | -5.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? — 8% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T15:20:09.134Z from https://orrery.me/markets/israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-june-30.
```

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