# Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:07:45 GMT. 24h change -1.6pp, 24h volume $260.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-14-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-14-2026
**Category:** Macro
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:07:45.722Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.6pp |
| Δ 1w | -2.5pp |
| 24h volume | $260.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $288.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0042…321e` — 157,984.215 shares
- `0x8045…5b8f` — 58,561.85 shares
- `0x9a3f…914a` — 54,999.965 shares
- `0xa527…9767` — 51,665.978 shares
- `0x5188…c804` — 47,705.805 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe639…082a` — 146,544.069 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 131,980.233 shares
- `0x9351…9e4d` — 66,344.422 shares
- `0xb1ca…1705` — 58,116 shares
- `0x5fc8…39ef` — 38,658.28 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:06:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 6¢ |
| Net change | -1.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-14-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:07:45.722Z from https://orrery.me/markets/jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-14-2026.
```

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