# Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 01:42:12 GMT. 24h change +3.4pp, 24h volume $286.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-16-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-16-2026
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T01:42:12.564Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +3.6pp |
| 24h volume | $286.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $537.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.7M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x73e3…3239` — 75,703.62 shares
- `0xb1ca…1705` — 24,514.804 shares
- `0xb9d3…4101` — 13,788.45 shares
- `0x9507…7b04` — 9,403.48 shares
- `0x420e…e3c9` — 7,128.59 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3a23…0f72` — 50,000.008 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 18,469.209 shares
- `0xa894…53da` — 13,449.747 shares
- `0x3471…a9d4` — 11,750.378 shares
- `0xbd04…fbb0` — 11,229.094 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T02:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T01:42:08.000Z |
| Range | 43¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +3.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-16-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T01:42:12.564Z from https://orrery.me/markets/jerome-powell-out-as-fed-chair-by-may-16-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*