# Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 8% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:07:45 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $224.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-may-31-689
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-may-31-689
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:07:45.275Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **8¢** (8%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -5.0pp |
| 24h volume | $224.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $4.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $689.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
> 
> Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
> 
> An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
> 
> If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
> 
> If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0a85…fe9d` — 406,273.817 shares
- `0xa9fe…f135` — 351,640.046 shares
- `0xae7c…487e` — 250,000.16 shares
- `0xf9d5…fba3` — 100,913.359 shares
- `0xb1fa…1a14` — 60,000.004 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 158,692.795 shares
- `0xb8a7…7674` — 121,225.73 shares
- `0x8afa…adb6` — 106,765.852 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 86,164.245 shares
- `0x8c66…44f3` — 65,431.735 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:06:04.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 13¢ |
| Net change | -5.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-may-31-689` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? — 8% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:07:45.275Z from https://orrery.me/markets/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-may-31-689.
```

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