# Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 10:57:03 GMT. 24h change -0.9pp, 24h volume $261.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lai-ching-te-impeached-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lai-ching-te-impeached-by-june-30
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T10:57:03.453Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.3pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.9pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.7pp |
| 24h volume | $261.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $277.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $7.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5599…a0c9` — 19,999.23 shares
- `0x7c9e…db3d` — 416.629 shares
- `0x66a1…80d9` — 397.055 shares
- `0x238f…3015` — 118 shares
- `0xa815…9cbe` — 102.45 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdb87…64f8` — 20,062 shares
- `0x7058…1a0a` — 480.47 shares
- `0x4fad…d264` — 317.031 shares
- `0x0362…449e` — 256.2 shares
- `0xa596…1d4c` — 199.997 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T11:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T10:56:08.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 4¢ |
| Net change | -1.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lai-ching-te-impeached-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T10:57:03.453Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lai-ching-te-impeached-by-june-30.
```

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