# Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 20:03:24 GMT. 24h change +21.0pp, 24h volume $929.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lal-osa-mad-2026-05-12-mad
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lal-osa-mad-2026-05-12-mad
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T20:03:24.659Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | +19.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +21.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +18.5pp |
| 24h volume | $929.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $944.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $74.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.laliga.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 12, 2026
> If Club Atlético de Madrid wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
> This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 21.0pp in 24h with 12.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf284…b9f9` — 48,089.201 shares
- `0x5af4…a7df` — 31,611.045 shares
- `0xc788…8545` — 28,208.166 shares
- `0x48fe…b2b6` — 24,838.73 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 23,610.85 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 35,592.854 shares
- `0x5d0c…bceb` — 33,860.959 shares
- `0x37e0…024e` — 29,571.672 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 28,033.105 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 23,635.634 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T21:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T20:02:06.000Z |
| Range | 34¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | +20.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lal-osa-mad-2026-05-12-mad` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T20:03:24.659Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lal-osa-mad-2026-05-12-mad.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*