# Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 57% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 20:35:04 GMT. 24h change +5.0pp, 24h volume $360.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lal-rea-ovi-2026-05-14-spread-home-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lal-rea-ovi-2026-05-14-spread-home-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T20:35:04.831Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **57¢** (57%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.5pp |
| 24h volume | $360.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $362.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $32.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://www.laliga.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for May 14 at 3:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 2 or more goals.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Oviedo".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved up 5.0pp in 24h with 11.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcd65…ee96` — 90,166.791 shares
- `0xd202…8973` — 69,166.92 shares
- `0x57cd…a0fb` — 15,349.961 shares
- `0x0346…52a5` — 14,642.737 shares
- `0xe0a2…40d5` — 12,507.593 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa8e0…ad50` — 69,287.899 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 68,963.695 shares
- `0x27f7…44b0` — 36,869.42 shares
- `0x2a69…d2f7` — 14,686.7 shares
- `0x7ea5…de7b` — 14,589.641 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T21:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T20:34:08.000Z |
| Range | 45¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | +0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lal-rea-ovi-2026-05-14-spread-home-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) — 57% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T20:35:04.831Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lal-rea-ovi-2026-05-14-spread-home-1pt5.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*