# Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 17% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 08:46:37 GMT. 24h change +7.0pp, 24h volume $213.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T08:46:37.075Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **17¢** (17%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +7.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +8.9pp |
| 24h volume | $213.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $279.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $72.8K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
> * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
> * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
> * Being formally booked or processed following detention
> * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
> * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
> * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
> 
> The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
> * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
> * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
> * Being named in an indictment without arrest
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x44bb…c186` — 194,571.816 shares
- `0xde00…da7d` — 3,326.75 shares
- `0x37dd…bf14` — 1,958.547 shares
- `0xc387…b297` — 1,407.06 shares
- `0x10d5…fa8a` — 979.659 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x098c…1c67` — 45,465.49 shares
- `0xe231…4e3e` — 43,061.862 shares
- `0xe154…0b7f` — 13,467.37 shares
- `0x4842…b7d4` — 11,265.406 shares
- `0xaf39…3101` — 10,006.22 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T09:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T08:45:06.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 37¢ |
| Net change | +8.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? — 17% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T08:46:37.075Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027.
```

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