# LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 02:37:50 GMT. 24h change +37.0pp, 24h volume $141.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T02:37:50.334Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +37.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $141.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $141.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $336.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 3 at 7:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win Game 1 against Shopify Rebellion.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win Game 1 against FlyQuest.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9770…0ff5` — 10,271.441 shares
- `0xfd96…e623` — 10,000 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 9,774.054 shares
- `0xa941…ec2e` — 3,465.899 shares
- `0x04bd…39a0` — 3,050 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8c0b…7aa5` — 11,262.778 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 4,787.683 shares
- `0x3186…e9ca` — 4,500.738 shares
- `0x7d4d…8525` — 3,207.606 shares
- `0xfae6…ab69` — 1,874.15 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 144 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T02:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T01:23:04.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T02:37:50.334Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*