# LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 02:37:04 GMT. 24h change +29.4pp, 24h volume $327.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T02:37:04.716Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.8pp |
| Δ 24h | +29.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $327.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $328.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $275.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 3 at 7:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against Shopify Rebellion.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against FlyQuest.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. 
> 
> If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
> 
> In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 85%): Probability moved up 29.4pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1341…0853` — 41,990.654 shares
- `0xdf43…ae9a` — 21,755 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 9,956.25 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 9,282.262 shares
- `0x4e8d…febf` — 9,126.816 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8c0b…7aa5` — 19,999.917 shares
- `0x6bac…6fb7` — 14,999.968 shares
- `0xdd88…dadb` — 12,577.893 shares
- `0x28ba…d4fb` — 10,330 shares
- `0x153a…9d6d` — 7,786.281 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 144 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T02:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T01:21:04.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T02:37:04.716Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-fly-sr-2026-05-03.
```

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