# Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 59% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 10:52:43 GMT. 24h change -1.5pp, 24h volume $11.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-fox1-hle1-2026-05-21-game-handicap-home-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-fox1-hle1-2026-05-21-game-handicap-home-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T10:52:43.839Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **59¢** (59%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $11.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $13.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $83.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between BNK FEARX and Hanwha Life Esports in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 21 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports wins 2 or more games than BNK FEARX in this match.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "BNK FEARX". 
> 
> Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7ecc…6c37` — 42,592 shares
- `0x2307…3934` — 23,901.176 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 20,960.76 shares
- `0xf201…527e` — 8,661.368 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 7,749.99 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1341…0853` — 64,180.96 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 13,000 shares
- `0x6ade…f5b0` — 8,570.389 shares
- `0x59f4…c1f1` — 7,317.073 shares
- `0xa7df…5eee` — 4,999.927 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 130 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T16:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T00:47:06.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 73¢ |
| Net change | +8.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-fox1-hle1-2026-05-21-game-handicap-home-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) — 59% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T10:52:43.839Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-fox1-hle1-2026-05-21-game-handicap-home-1pt5.
```

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