# LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 18:04:22 GMT. 24h change +41.9pp, 24h volume $255.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-kc-2026-05-16-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-g2-kc-2026-05-16-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T18:04:22.962Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +41.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $255.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $255.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $159.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between G2 Esports and Karmine Corp in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 16 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 1 against Karmine Corp.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win Game 1 against G2 Esports.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x996a…e3cc` — 60,000 shares
- `0x1887…f75d` — 15,258.549 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 15,042.997 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 8,749.987 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 6,636.57 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x19b6…ad8e` — 15,076.94 shares
- `0xad72…4f5e` — 9,286.983 shares
- `0xbfd7…f0bf` — 9,138.377 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 8,932.972 shares
- `0x60d0…e05f` — 7,006.989 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T22:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T18:04:05.000Z |
| Range | 40¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-g2-kc-2026-05-16-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T18:04:22.962Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-kc-2026-05-16-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*