# LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 19:34:44 GMT. 24h change +37.5pp, 24h volume $626.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-mkoi-2026-05-25-game4
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-g2-mkoi-2026-05-25-game4
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T19:34:44.568Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +24.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +37.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $626.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $626.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $423.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between G2 Esports and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 25 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 4 against Movistar KOI.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 4 against G2 Esports.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. 
> 
> If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 89%): Probability moved up 37.5pp in 24h with 1.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 55,767.029 shares
- `0x2cad…eb66` — 47,521.87 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 32,805.42 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 31,499.982 shares
- `0x3833…33d1` — 30,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 44,999.9 shares
- `0xfbf3…b218` — 44,402.521 shares
- `0x8fbb…9a17` — 24,568.408 shares
- `0x3af1…d739` — 15,925.502 shares
- `0x6373…a0b7` — 12,030.997 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 25 |
| Window start | 2026-05-24T19:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T18:53:03.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +37.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-g2-mkoi-2026-05-25-game4` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T19:34:44.568Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-mkoi-2026-05-25-game4.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*