# LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 20:25:01 GMT. 24h change +40.0pp, 24h volume $268.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T20:25:01.705Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +40.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $268.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $268.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $306.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between G2 Esports and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 3 at 1:15PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against G2 Esports.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2037…473d` — 19,508.62 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 11,548.762 shares
- `0xafd4…7e61` — 6,165.368 shares
- `0xb234…1c20` — 5,010.797 shares
- `0xf859…a183` — 4,999.973 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x01e6…e7e0` — 10,832.474 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 9,795.639 shares
- `0xb6ce…7a7d` — 7,609.022 shares
- `0xec98…afcd` — 7,347.805 shares
- `0x9b49…04a8` — 6,203.988 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T10:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T20:24:04.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T20:25:01.705Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*