# LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 20:23:22 GMT. 24h change +39.5pp, 24h volume $366.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T20:23:22.101Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +39.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $366.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $366.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $112.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between G2 Esports and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 3 at 1:15PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 2 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 2 against G2 Esports.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. 
> 
> If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x52ec…a6f3` — 22,306.186 shares
- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 21,172.22 shares
- `0x1887…f75d` — 19,296.248 shares
- `0x4e8d…febf` — 16,637.194 shares
- `0x3833…33d1` — 15,522.69 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc75a…1ab2` — 32,722.31 shares
- `0xafd4…7e61` — 15,103.25 shares
- `0x3a09…f9f7` — 12,458.994 shares
- `0x8e8c…65dd` — 12,081.984 shares
- `0x6842…20d0` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T10:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T20:04:05.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T20:23:22.101Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-03-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*