# LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 18:22:10 GMT. 24h change +34.4pp, 24h volume $261.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-14-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-14-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T18:22:10.834Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +34.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +38.5pp |
| 24h volume | $261.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $261.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $154.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between G2 Esports and Natus Vincere in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against G2 Esports.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe557…9597` — 60,200 shares
- `0xa995…1be0` — 20,000.39 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 13,499.991 shares
- `0xd703…71bf` — 6,200 shares
- `0x75e1…8f69` — 2,500 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc44f…d49f` — 15,087.229 shares
- `0x832d…64ac` — 10,000 shares
- `0x3e53…bf9a` — 7,905 shares
- `0x540d…122b` — 5,923.7 shares
- `0x5809…9868` — 5,604.232 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T19:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T18:22:07.000Z |
| Range | 62¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +38.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-g2-navi-2026-05-14-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T18:22:10.834Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-g2-navi-2026-05-14-game1.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*